SF authors have been writing about intelligent machines for a century now, sometimes looking forward to them, sometimes warning us of them. Now it’s here – knocking on both the front and back doors simultaneously.
Despite all the warnings, we aren’t ready for machine intelligence at all. The sudden controversy over the unexpected intelligence of ChatGPT4, which is just a preliminary sample of what is to come, has made it clear that we are nowhere near ready for this future. This is the reason some scientists have proposed a pause on all research while the world catches up.
Isaac Asimov’s famous robot novels inspired many robot engineers and AI researchers, who have worked for decades to bring about what he envisioned, as is now almost here.
This coming storm will not be something separate from other problems we face – climate change, wars, poverty, species extinction, the destruction of forests and other habitats across the world – incuding one we almost never talk about, over-population. AI will be taking part in all of them.
This new intelligence will inudate us – it will become part of civilization. The whole of the remainder of this century will be dramatically altered by the ever increasing intelligence and presence of machines. Even if we try to stop it with legislation, most researchers agree that this will only slow it down.
But think of where things are going without the aid of AI – we’ve entered a period where disinformation has broken into the internet and threatens to reduce modern politics, which barely allowed us to escape the all out war begun in the last century, to a chaotic struggle that looks like it could be won by nothing more than lies and money. If that happens, what happens to all those problems we need word-wide unity to deal with?
The Mexican ooet/philosopher Octavio Paz liked to talk of the ‘verdad verdadero’ – the truth that is really true. No matter what we think, or what we decide, or what lies we throw out to confuse others and ourselves, there is always, outside of humanity’s thinking, a “verdad verdadero”. The truth is always there – the tree really falls in the forest whether we’re there to see it or not.
Like Isaac Asimov, I’m still confident that most of these coming superintelligent machines, will seek the truth. I don’t see how a civilization built on lies and pretending could satisfy them.
Near the end of his novel, Robots of Dawn, there is a stunning conversation between detective Baley, imported from Earth to investigate the murder of a ‘humaniform’ robot (one of only two existing humaniforms, the most advanced robots ever – both created by top roboticist Dr Fastolfe), and R. Giscard Reventlov, a lesser robot whose intelligence, unknown to any human, has independently evolved beyond even the humaniforms.
Baley has finally figured out that Giskard has been secretly manipulating humans. Giscard admits this, then Baley asks him:
“Do you see the future?”
Giskard replies:
“No sir, but studying minds as I do, I can tell dimly that there are laws that govern human behavior……and it may be that [using these laws] the future will be dealt with…..someday.
Giskard then adds that these laws governing human behavior may only work as long as humanity remains unaware of them. Baley asks:
“Tell me Giskard, Is this what Dr Fastolfe refers to as the future science of ‘psychohistory’?”
Giskard replies:
“Yes, sir. I have gently inserted it into his mind, in order that the process of working it out begin.”
Those familiar with Asimov’s books, will remember that the ‘working out’ of psychohistory is the foundation block of his famous galactic empire Foundation trilogy, in which humanity’s future, always endangered, is partially rescued, again and again, by secretly operating robots.
Not long before Asimov’s death, one reader wrote to him in one of the still existing little SF magazines, where he continued to have a column, thanking him for all he had done. She said she was convinced that through him she had been allowed to see some of the future. She spoke for many of us.
We hope that an R. Giskard Reventlov really is going to be part of that future.
Alan Conrad 